How to punch a ticket to The Dance

How do the Wildcats win the PAC -10 tournament and make it to the dance for the twenty sixth straight year? Easy. Win five in a row. The Cats actually could still get the second seed in the PAC - 10 tournament but what is more realistic is the third seed. Currently Washington sits in third place just one game up on Arizona in the standings. They have road games at the Oregon schools to close out the regular season. Washington is 2 and 5 in PAC 10 road games so it is not out of realm of possibility that they get swept this weekend. If the Cats can win both home games and Washington loses both the Cats are the third seed. But lets say the Huskies split and the Cats sweep. Then Arizona and Washington would be tied for the third seed. The first tiebreaker is head to head and they split those games. The second tie breaker is what they have done against the highest seed in the standings and then each next highest seed until the tie is broken. Both teams split with Cal and Arizona State. That leaves us with either USC or UCLA. Washington lost both games to USC and split with UCLA. If the Cats sweep this weekend they will have split with USC and swept UCLA. Bottom line is the Cats have the tie breaker advantage. If they sweep this weekend chances are Arizona gets the third seed.

So what does that mean true believer? I will tell you what that means. A first round PAC 10 match up vs. most likely Oregon St. or Stanford. I would prefer Stanford but we will be favored in either one of those games. On to the semi finals vs. Arch Rival ASU if they get by Oregon St. or Stanford. Can we beat ASU? Yes if they don't shoot it they are very beatable. That puts you in the Championship game against? Washington, UCLA or Cal and under this scenario the Cats are a combined 4 and 2 against those schools. My guess is UCLA gets through to the final in their home town. How sweet would it be to beat both ASU and UCLA in the PAC 10 tournament to punch our ticket?

A man can dream.

After posting this I found an even better breakdown from Anthony Gimino.

For Arizona, for much of the year, it’s been all about getting hot at the right time … and then hoping the basketball gods are smiling upon coach Sean Miller when he takes his Wildcats to Staples Center for the league tournament.
That’s still possible.
Fresh off that 71-69 victory at Stanford on Saturday, the Wildcats finish the regular season at home this week against UCLA (The Team That Can’t Stay Healthy) and USC (The Team That Can’t Score 50 Points).
I like Arizona’s chances.
Finishing in a tie for second in the Pac-10 is quite a long shot, though.
Here’s what has to happen:
Arizona sweeps UCLA and USC.
ASU loses to USC and UCLA.
Washington does no better than split on the road at the Oregon schools.
It’s too early to get into all the various tiebreaker scenarios that might be needed for the Pac-10 tournament, but there is this: If Arizona and Arizona State tie for second, the Wildcats have the tiebreaker edge.
Since the teams split the season series, the next tiebreaker is how each team fared against the league champ, Cal. Arizona split. ASU lost twice. Edge to Arizona. That’s how the Cats can get the No. 2 seed.
If Arizona, ASU and Washington tie for second, it gets more complicated. We’ll get into that Friday, if needed.
On the other hand, Arizona could finish as low as a three-way tie for seventh.
Here’s how that could work:
Arizona loses to UCLA and USC to finish 8-10.
Oregon State sweeps the visiting Washington schools to finish 9-9.
Stanford beats visiting Cal to get to 8-10.
Oregon sweeps the Washington schools to finish 8-10.
So, in this wacky season in the Pac-10 — and by wacky, we mean WAC-like — Arizona heads into the final week of the regular season with the ability to be the No. 2 seed in the league tournament. Or (pending my ability to work out the tiebreakers), the Wildcats could still tumble to the Wednesday night play-in game (about 19,000 good seats available).
Makes you hope that more guys than just Derrick Williams and MoMo Jones still care about what happens the rest of the way.
Two wins this week means a possible — likely — NIT berth if the Wildcats don’t win the Pac-10 tourney to earn an invite to the NCAAs. Some of the Wildcats have been playing as if the season has been too long. But there is something worse than a long season. One that is too short.
Really, the Cats have no excuses for not winning two games this week.
UCLA just lost at home to Oregon and has three forwards who might not be ready Thursday — Reeves Nelson (retina), Nikola Dragovic (sprained his ankle after stepping on a basketball in warm-ups Saturday) and Brendan Lane (sprained ankle).
O’Neill’s depth-challenged USC team hasn’t scored more than 47 points in any of the past three games, and its tank is on empty, especially with a self-imposed postseason ban. In being swept at home by the Oregon schools last week, the Trojans scored a total of 31 second-half points.
Funny how it could all work out.
With a sweep, Arizona most likely would finish fourth in the Pac-10 … just as we all predicted back in October.